Suppose you are convinced that inflation is not as temporary as central banks are saying. Traditionally, to trade on this belief, you would need to analyse which assets would be affected if your forecast was correct. But this is a flawed approach – you are forced to translate every idea you have about the future of the economy into trades on proxy markets like stocks, commodities, and crypto.
With Fortunity, anyone around the world would be able to trade derivatives on these economic indicators directly, without having to rely on risky correlations or advice from Youtube gurus. Do you think inflation will go up more than people anticipate? You can simply go long on our inflation Forecast Market, and be rewarded if your insight comes to fruition. And the more accurate you are, the more you earn.
Your wealth is always at risk. No matter which assets you hold, the forces of the economy almost always disturb financial stability: both for individuals and businesses. This couldn't be more true in 2022 when inflation has skyrocketed in many countries, and the threat of recession has crumbled stock prices.
Fortunity offers a new way to protect against these unexpected economic shocks. For example, to protect your portfolio against a recession, you could sell GDP growth on future Forecast Markets, creating a layer of economic insurance against a fall in economic growth.
In the future, this will be especially important for businesses. Suppose an aviation company has specific labour costs. To smoothen profitability, the firm could buy the associated labour cost variables on our Forecast Markets, protecting themselves against unprecedented labour shocks.
Last year has been devastating for hodlers and liquidity providers (LPs) alike: Ethereum dropped 65% in 2022. For LPs, this downfall should not be underestimated. According to a study by Bancor, 50% of Uniswap V3 LPs are losing money due to Impermanent Loss. This problem will most likely continue hurting LPs since crypto prices are strongly correlated with each other and tend to move in large waves.
However, Forecast Markets provide uncorrelated returns to LPs, unlocking a more consistent source of passive income than other DEXs on DeFi.
Signal is infinitely more valuable than noise. We live in a world with overwhelming amounts of information and yet our system fails to combine it into wisdom. As a consequence, many central banks, governments, and academics fail to accurately forecast the future of our economy at times when it matters most.
Data arbitrageurs on Fortunity are users that tap into existing research, consensus forecasts, and news to trade on our Forecast Markets. In essence, this crowdsourcing effect would mean that Fortunity rewards market participants to extract valuable information – benefitting society in the process.
Forecast Markets are the beginning of a new chapter in finance. This is an innovation that we hope to bring not only to DeFi but also to traditional finance in future integration plans. On top of that, Forecast Markets unlock a wide variety of new derivatives that can be synthesised based on our platform. For example, imagine trading options on the consumer confidence level. The possibilities are bound to grow exponentially, and so will the opportunities for developers and entrepreneurs.